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FX NZD, CAD, CHF Signal Setups for 2024-02-01

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United States: The Federal Reserve is expected to continue its rate hike cycle, with Chair Powell testifying before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday. The housing market is also under close scrutiny, with data on building permits, mortgage applications, and existing home sales due out this week.
Eurozone: The European Central Bank is also expected to raise rates, but the pace of tightening is likely to be more gradual than in the US. The ECB is also facing a number of other challenges, including the war in Ukraine and the risk of a recession.
United Kingdom: The Bank of England is expected to raise rates for a fifth consecutive meeting. Inflation in the UK is at a 40-year high, and the BoE is under pressure to act to bring it under control.
Other countries: Other central banks around the world are also expected to raise rates in an effort to combat inflation. The Reserve Bank of Australia, the Swiss National Bank, and the Bank of Canada are all expected to hike rates this week.

In addition to central bank policy, there are a number of other factors that could impact the markets this week. These include:

US economic data: The release of key economic data, such as retail sales and industrial production, could provide insights into the health of the US economy.
Geopolitical developments: The war in Ukraine and the ongoing tensions between the US and China could continue to weigh on investor sentiment.
Corporate earnings: A number of major companies are scheduled to report earnings this week, which could provide investors with an update on corporate profits and outlooks.

Overall, the markets are likely to be volatile this week as investors assess the latest economic data and central bank policy decisions.

Roundup of the economic data released on June 15, 2024,

Australia:

Employment Change: Came in at 75.9K, above the forecast of 18.6K and previous reading of -4.0K. Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 3.6%.
Market Impact: This is a positive sign for the Australian economy, as it suggests that the labor market is still strong. This could lead to higher stock prices and a stronger Australian dollar.

China:

Industrial Production y/y: Came in at 3.5%, in line with the forecast and previous reading of 5.6%.
Market Impact: This is a neutral result for the Chinese economy. It suggests that the economy is still growing, but at a slower pace than in previous months. This could lead to a slight decline in stock prices and a weaker Chinese yuan.

Eurozone:

Main Refinancing Rate: Was kept unchanged at 4.00%, as expected. Monetary Policy Statement was also unchanged.
Market Impact: This is a neutral result for the Eurozone economy. It suggests that the European Central Bank is not yet ready to raise interest rates, despite rising inflation. This could lead to a slight decline in stock prices and a weaker euro.

United States:

Core Retail Sales m/m: Came in at 0.1%, the same as the forecast of 0.1% and previous reading of 0.4%.
Empire State Manufacturing Index: Came in at 6.6, sharply higher than the forecast of -15.0 and previous reading of -31.8.
Retail Sales m/m: Came in at 0.3%, above the forecast of -0.2% and previous reading of 0.4%.
Unemployment Claims: Came in at 262K, higher than the forecast of 246K and previous reading of 262K.
Market Impact: The mixed economic data released in the United States on June 15, 2024 is likely to have a neutral impact on the markets. The strong Empire State Manufacturing Index and Retail Sales m/m data are positive signs for the economy, but the higher than expected Unemployment Claims data is a negative sign. Overall, the data suggests that the US economy is growing at a moderate pace. This could lead to a slight decline in stock prices and a weaker US dollar.