Selecting markets where there may be turning point or breakout opportunities.
Type of Alert:
A MarketWatch Alert is triggered when the market is showing signs of a potential breakout or reversal which has not yet happened.
A Breakout Alert is triggered if the actual High Low Close price is significantly different to the intraday forecast range of the PDL model.
This may mean that the market may be changing or starting to behave in a different way with a possible breakout from its current trading range.
If the alert occurred with no apparent reason, then the price may be expected to revert back to its current trading range.
If the alert is supported with a reason (better than expected results, new contract order, new broker recommendation etc) then a breakout to a new trading range may be expected to develop.
A potential turning point is flagged if the market is close to a support, resistance or retracment level and is showing signs of a possible reversal.
The chart shows a historic price chart with support and resistance lines and a forecast area for the next five days.
The TurningPoint Alert must always be confirmed by fundamental analysis and breaking economic news.
An alert is generated based on news
Other setup alerts not covered by the above.
Forecast : Group & Rank: Select
Price Dynamics Ltd uses machine learning techniques to forecast,classify and select opportunities in related time series.
Applicable to markets such as:foreign exchange,precious & base metals, ETFs, stock market indices, sectors and individual mining and other equities.
Both univariate and multivariate process models have been developed, where the process is : Forecast: Group &Rank: Select
Univariate Time Series
This looks at the historical data of one time series alone and then makes three forecasts of the zones the price is likely to to be in based on:
1) volatility 2) trend 3) cyclical behaviour as well as a signal.
Group & Rank
Related Markets (eg Mining Equities) are then classified into groups from the forecast zone behaviour and then ranked based on the price pattern similarity between the time series.
Selection opportunities can then be made based on which group the market is in, recent signal change, support and resistance levels followed by confirmation from fundamentals and company information.
Multivariate Time Series
Using a historical price series together with factors such as related markets, economic data and investment behaviour.
Forecast Zones based on volatility, trend and cycle along with signal are made:
1) of the price data alone
2) of the underlying markets and other key influential factors
3) of composite factors which capture the main behaviour of the individual factors being used.
Group & Rank
The underlying factors are then ranked by the magnitude of the correlation. The forecasts and group of the factors then serve to determine the confidence in the main market signal.
Market timing opportunities can then be made based on the groups the market and factors are in, along with recent signal change and support and resistance levels.